Cancer deaths set to decline new analysis suggests

Death rates from cancer are set to decline in the UK, a new analysis predicts. Overall, researchers estimate that 1.24 million cancer deaths may have been avoided between 1989 and 2023 in the UK.

Ageing and population growth mean that the number of cancer deaths could rise from 91,059 and 79,631 in men and women respectively in 2018 to an estimated 92,111 and 80,203 in 2023.

However, age-standardised rates could decline by 11.41 per cent from 120.26 in 2018 to an estimated 106.54 in 2023 in men. Among women, age-standardised rates could decline by 9.79 per cent from 92.55 in 2018 to an estimated 83.46 in 2023. 

Stomach cancer (20.96 per cent decline in men; 25.86 per cent in women), leukaemia (14.97 and 16.20 per cent), prostate (10.25 per cent) and female breast cancer (10.46 per cent) may show particularly marked improvements. Age-standardised death rates from lung cancer declined by an estimated 19.65 and 14.30 per cent between 2015-2019 to 2023 in men and women respectively. 

The data do not reflect the impact of Covid-19 on, for example, late presentation and delayed treatment. “If the current trajectory of declining cancer death rates continues, then it is possible there could be a further 35 per cent reduction by 2035. More smokers quitting contribute to these favourable trends,” comments study author Professor Carlo La Vecchia from the University of Milan. 

“In addition, greater efforts need to be made to control the growing epidemic in overweight, obesity and diabetes, alcohol consumption and infections, together with improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatments.” (Annals of Oncology DOI: 10.1016/j.annonc.2023.01.010)